More than seven in ten people (72%) are concerned or somewhat concerned that Canadian tariff retaliation will escalate tensions between Canada and the United States.  This cuts across all regions, demographic groups and partisan preferences.  (Survey ending April 6, 2025) -Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist The CTV News-Globe and Mail/Nanos…

Trust in Mark Carney to support economic growth is more than twice that of his Liberal predecessor, Justin Trudeau. Carney also significantly outscores Poilievre on trust, picking up voters who in the past didn’t trust anyone or were unsure. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone…

Canadian consumer confidence continues to slide in a negative trajectory with a noticeable decline in the forward-looking Expectations Sub-indice. Of note, this index has hit a two year low and those reporting their job is secure has hit an almost five year numeric low not seen since the summer of…

Now it’s a five-point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The one thing we do know is that US President Trump has not been looming large in the Canadian mindset for the last number of days – especially compared to the period leading up to his “Liberation Day”.  There…

In the post Trump “Liberation Day” period the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed with the Liberals at 43 percent and the Conservatives at 37 percent nationally. The New Democrats stand at eight percent support (eight percent represents a new numeric low for the NDP).  Conservative gains…

Close to nine in ten Canadians (86%) think this federal election is more important than previous elections, while 13 per cent think its as important and one per cent are unsure. Less than one per cent of Canadians think this federal election is less important than previous ones. Residents of…

The ballot advantage for the Liberals has increased from five to 11 percentage points since the beginning of the nightly tracking. (LPC 46, CPC 35, NDP 9).  The Conservatives and Liberals are within the margin of error of each other among male voters for the first time in the Nanos…

Across all demographic groups and regions, Canadians believe that the current environment with tension in the Canada-US relationship is more likely to benefit the Liberals. In addition to the focus as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, being Prime Minister and responding to US President Trump is currently unfolding…

Regardless of the current political environment, the election is clearly still up for grabs. Although 55 percent of Canadians report having made a final vote decision, a significant one in five say they will make their final decision in the last 72 hours (10% will make their final decision on…

Overall, Liberal leader Carney has a trust advantage over Conservative leader Poilievre (48% of Canadians trust Carney, 27% of Canadians trust Poilievre) when it comes to keeping promises.  Of note, undecided voters report they are more likely to trust Carney over Poilievre (32% trust Carney, 10% trust Poilievre, 31% trust…

There is an interesting range of opinions on French language capability for the next PM. Seventeen percent want the PM to be perfectly bilingual while another 22 percent want the PM to have strong French language skills. The most popular response was that the PM needs working knowledge (38%). Although…

People continue to care about the size of the Government of Canada deficit. This in the wake of a focus on the binational relationship and economic uncertainty. The intensity of care has marginally declined. Overall, the numbers are consistent with the 2021 baseline. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-…

In the wake of an unpredictable relationship with the Trump Administration in the US, Canadians are quite supportive of a new government funded oil pipeline from Alberta to Eastern Canada.  Three of four Canadians favour this project including almost six in ten Quebecers. A majority of Canadians support or somewhat…

Carney boosts Liberal fortunes. What is clear from the data is the Liberal advantage is clearly being driven by their new leader.  A look at the nightly ballot tracking has the Liberals with a 10 point lead over the Conservatives (LPC 46, CPC 36) with the New Democrats a distant…

The latest national tracking survey shows a lift in support for the Liberal Party, now leading with 46% of voter backing. The Conservatives follow at 37%, while the New Democrats trail at a tracking low of 9%, dipping from 11% in earlier tracking. Over the initial five days of data…

 It’s a two-party consolidation compared to past elections.  The Carney Liberals continue to have an eight-point advantage over the Poilievre Conservatives.  Compared to past elections a two-party consolidation is redefining the election landscape. A key signature of this election is the consolidation of support among the two front running parties. …

 As the campaign unfolds the Carney Liberals have opened up an eight-point advantage over the Poilievre Conservatives while the NDP continues to distantly trail.  The Liberals lead in every region except the Prairie provinces where the Conservatives continue to do very well. Women are more likely to vote Liberal while…

Close to nine in ten Canadians rate oil and gas as important to Canada’s current economy (score of 7-10 out of 10) (88%) which is a significant increase from the previous wave in August 2024 (79%), and an all-time high since tracking began in 2020. Additionally, an increasing proportion see…

What is clear from the research is that Canadians hold the leaders of the two front running parties to a high level of accountability. More than six in ten would want Carney to disclose details of his blind trust and six in ten want Poilievre to obtain a security clearance.…

As Canadians brace for US President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” and potential tariffs, they very much support action whether it be retaliation with putting tariffs on energy or critical mineral exports. Of note, a majority of individuals in the energy-rich Prairie provinces support this retaliation. When asked about buying…