The Ford Progressive Conservatives enjoy a 15 point advantage in ballot box support with about two weeks left in the election campaign. Ford has a comfortable advantage as the leader Ontarians would prefer as premier. (Tracking ending Feb 15) -Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist The CTV News/Nanos nightly provincial election…

Both the Ford-led PC and the Crombie-led Liberal parties continue to cruise at support levels higher than the last provincial election in 2022.  The Stiles New Democrats register ballot numbers lower than those in 2022.  The massive 26-point advantage for the PCs among males is a crucial driver of the…

As the campaign unfolds the Ford PCs lead the Liberals by 13 percentage points.  Of note, in the last few days the Crombie Liberals have shows some upward movement in the Toronto Region, numerically ahead of the PCs.  (Tracking ending Feb 13) The CTV News/Nanos nightly provincial election tracking conducted…

According to recent CTV News/Nanos survey data on the Ontario election, healthcare is poised to be a pivotal factor in voting intentions. Interestingly, none of the major parties have a clear advantage in addressing the doctor shortage. Furthermore, one in five Ontarians express a lack of trust in any provincial…

The Ford Progressive Conservatives maintain a significant lead over the Crombie Liberals, holding a strong advantage in four out of five regions. Meanwhile, Toronto remains highly competitive. In the Golden West region, the PCs are ahead, with the Liberals and NDP locked in a tie for second place. (Tracking ending…

Expanding public transit tops the importance over expanding highways in every region of the province of Ontario. Women and Ontarians under 35 years of age have greater comparative appetites for expanding public transit. -Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist The CTV News/Nanos nightly provincial election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys…

In a striking display of unity, a significant majority of Ontarians have voiced their concerns regarding the potential impact of proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on the Ontario economy. This apprehension spans across all regions and demographic groups, highlighting the pervasive anxiety about the economic repercussions of such…

Ford maintains ballot advantage and remains the most popular choice to be the Premier of Ontario.  The PCs and Liberals continue to surpass the support they received in the last provincial election while support for the New Democrats is lower than the last election. (Tracking ending Feb 11) The CTV…

Doug Ford’s initial 16-point lead in the CTV News/Nanos tracking poll has narrowed to a 12-point advantage. Support for both the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) and the Liberals tends to increase with age, while backing for the New Democrats declines among older demographics.  Greens similar across generations. The PCs currently lead…

Nanos tracks unprompted issues of concern every week. To access full weekly national and regional tracking visit the Nanos subscriber data portal. A 10-point swing from the Conservatives to the Liberals over the past few weeks has resulted in a horserace federally.  This is concurrent with the strained relations between…

Although the February 1 tariff deadline has passed and is now paused for 30 days, the forward look on the economy as tracked by the Expectations Sub-indice remains in negative territory. -Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,005…

Doug Ford’s initial 16-point lead in the CTV/Nanos daily tracking is now a 13-point advantage. With a margin of error of three percentage points, this shift is a trendline worth monitoring closely. The political landscape in Toronto remains fiercely competitive between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals, while Ford maintains a…

Ontarians are more likely to say the Ford Government pays too much attention to voters in the GTHA.  This is the view of 48 per cent of respondents.  Of note, this view jumps to over six in ten people living in South West, Central, Eastern and Northern Ontario. -Nik Nanos,…

The Ford Progressive Conservatives maintain a commanding 16-point lead over the  Crombie Liberals. Notably, the Stiles New Democrats are the only provincial party to have gained support over the past two nights. While they still lag behind the other two parties, NDP support has risen from 15.7% to 19.9% in…

Although the rationale to call the election was Trump, only 14 per cent of Ontarians believe that is the most important issue that would influence their vote. Ontarians want to hear about healthcare and jobs. Dealing with Trump as a key factor influencing voters, does not rank first in any…

Support for the Ford PCs remained stable in the nightly tracking while there was some narrowing of the gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats. Although two data points does not make a trend, a potential dynamic between the two main opposition parties should be monitored. (Tracking ending Feb…

What’s interesting is that in addition to a majority either disagreeing or somewhat disagreeing with the early election call, the proportion favouring the election call (34%) is lower than PC ballot support (46%).  This suggests a noticeable number of PCs do not favour the early election. -Nik Nanos, Chief Data…

The research gauged the opinions among Quebecers on their plans to place bets on the Super Bowl. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 400 Quebecers, 18 years of age or older, between January 31st and February 5th, 2025 as part…

PC Leader Doug Ford asked for a stronger mandate to deal with US President Donald Trump and he opens up the campaign with ballot support higher than his majority victory in 2022. The Liberals currently are firmly in second place in the CTV News/Nanos tracking. Ford leads in every region…

The objective of the research was to gauge the views of Canadians on trade negotiations with the United-States, the job done by Canada to prepare for trade and tariff discussions with the U.S., Canada’s response to the president of the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canadian goods and opinion on Canada’s…