The gap between the two front runners has narrowed to three percentage points as we enter the closing weekend of the campaign. Key movement over the last few days has been in battleground Ontario where the margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives is closing.  The Liberal advantage stands at…

To access the weekly Issue – Tracking ending April 25th, 2025 – STAT SHEET, click here.

In a nation divided between East and West, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario, the Conservatives in the Prairies with BC a toss up.  National support for the parties stands at 42.7 percent for the Liberals, 38.4 percent for the Conservatives, 8.3% for the NDP, Bloc at…

About two in five Canadians think Canada should keep its trade relationship with China at the current level. However, the appetite to increase its current trade relationship with China has grown compared to 2023. Although similar proportions of both committed Conservative voters and committed Liberal voters prefer maintaining our current…

Liberals are more likely to be driven by a federal party leader they trust (50%) and a platform or policy they like (17%), while Conservatives are more likely to be driven by a platform or policy they like (37%) and a federal party leader they trust (26%). Of note, the…

The Liberals are more likely to be favoured than Conservatives by second-generation Canadian citizens (LPC 47.0%, CPC 37.1%, NDP 11.1%) and first-generation Canadian citizens (LPC 46.1%, CPC 35.8%, NDP 8.5%). There is a dead heat between Liberals (40.6%) and Conservatives (40.5%) among those with weak or no connection to immigration.…

Canadians are split in their views on Canada’s commitments to foreign and humanitarian aid. Forty-three percent would like aid to stay the same, 31 percent favour a decrease and 18 percent want to see an increase. There are significant differences by party affiliation, with Conservative voters being over six times…

The research gauged the opinions among residents of the federal ridings of Perth-Wellington, Parry Sound-Muskoka and Simcoe North on the state of the riding including perceptions of real estate, core community issues and the housing market. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) random telephone survey of 900 residents…

The gap is narrowing on both ballot preferences and who Canadians want as Prime Minister concurrent with the full release of the Conservative platform.  Poilievre and the Conservatives are up over the past three days.  As of last night, it is the tightest since the tracking began this election. Nationally…

NDP support has slid after post debate bump. With less than a week to election day, the race between the Liberals and the Conservatives for ballot support continues to be close and stable (LPC 44.1, CPC 38.5, NDP 7.7).  However, the NDP after an initial marginal lift coming out of…

The gap is currently 5.5 percentage points between the Liberals and the Conservatives (LPC 42.6, CPC 37.1, NDP 10.5).  There has been some movement numerically from the Liberals to the NDP while Conservative support remains steady. There are two key groups that are absolute toss-ups in the latest nightly tracking…

Consumer confidence continues to be on a negative trajectory.  When asked if the economy will get stronger, weaker or have no change in the next six month, two of three asserted weaker.  Numerically the weaker economy score has not been this high in almost five years. -Nik Nanos, Chief Data…

The Liberals close out the weekend following the French and English debates with a seven point lead over the Conservatives (LCP 43.7, CPC 36.3, NDP 10.7).  In addition to their lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario, the Liberals are currently ahead in battleground British Columbia. The Conservatives only lead…

The impact of the two leadership debates is starting to play itself out with polling completed on Saturday.  Readers should note that no fieldwork was done on the Friday statutory holiday so the three day sample is based on April 16, 17 and 19. The Liberals have a six point…

The latest CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos tracking has the Liberals ahead by eight points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8) as the campaign enters the holiday weekend. The Liberals lead in four of five regions while Conservatives continue to enjoy a comfortable advantage in their Prairie heartland.  In the tracking…

Around one in three Canadians say they trust Mark Carney and the Liberals most to help young Canadians (34%) closely followed by those say Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives (31%). Young people more likely to trust Poilievre over Carney. Young Canadians also more likely to focus on cost of living…

In addition to noteworthy differences by party affiliation, respondents in the Prairies, Ontario and BC are more likely than respondents in Quebec to say they feel somewhat less safe or less safe than they did ten years ago (45% in the Prairies; 43% in Ontario; 41% in BC; 24% in…

The Liberals have a marginal five-point advantage over the Conservatives with a little over 10 days left in the campaign (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9). The first night of tracking which occurred concurrently with the French leaders debate shows the race in Quebec currently stable.  That said, debate impact…

Nanos conducted a survey on Canadians views of the federal government. One in three Canadians say optimism (32%) is the feeling that best describes their view of the federal government, representing an increase of 25 percentage points since the last wave in January 2025 and reaching a numerical high since…

Heading into the French language debate the Liberals are ahead by eight percentage points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8).  In battleground Quebec the Liberals have an advantage over their opponents (LPC 45, BQ 28, CPC 19, NDP 5).  The shape of the race in Quebec today is much different…