Heading into the French language debate the Liberals are ahead by eight percentage points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8). In battleground Quebec the Liberals have an advantage over their opponents (LPC 45, BQ 28, CPC 19, NDP 5). The shape of the race in Quebec today is much different compared to the last federal… Continue Reading LPC 44.7, CPC 37.3, NDP 8.3, BQ 6.2, GP 2.2, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 15, 2025)
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Category: Reports
LPC 44.1, CPC 38.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.3, PPC 1.5 (Tracking ending April 14, 2025)
Conservative support hits a 14 year election day high – but it is not enough. The Liberal advantage continues at five percentage points (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9). The interesting dynamic is that for the Conservatives, 39 percent is not enough to win the election. One should not be surprised that the Conservatives feel… Continue Reading LPC 44.1, CPC 38.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.3, PPC 1.5 (Tracking ending April 14, 2025)
How do we feel about Canada? 51% pretty good needs improvement, 33% great country, 16% broken (Globe
About one in six Canadian say “Canada is broken” compared to the majority that think it is good but needs improvement (51%) or is a great country (33%). Of note, Committed Conservatives are much less likely to say Canada is a great country (14% CPC, compared to 33% nationally) and are more likely to believe… Continue Reading How do we feel about Canada? 51% pretty good needs improvement, 33% great country, 16% broken (Globe and Mail/CTV News/ Nanos)
Six in ten Canadians believe we are moving in the right direction for response to the US tariffs (CT...
A majority of Canadians (60%) believe the country is moving in the right direction on the response to the US tariffs. Of note, committed Conservatives are twice as likely to think we are moving in the wrong direction compared to the national average (50% CPC wrong direction, 23% Canadians wrong direction). -Nik Nanos, Chief Data… Continue Reading Six in ten Canadians believe we are moving in the right direction for response to the US tariffs (CTV News/ Globe and Mail/ Nanos)
Three in five Canadians think Western separatism is serious to one extent to another – Think this is
A majority of Canadians across all regions and demographic groups believe Western separatism should be taken seriously/somewhat seriously. This intensity increases among committed Conservative and Bloc voters. Although a minority opinion, people living in the Prairies and British Columbia are comparatively more likely to think that this election is the time to talk about this… Continue Reading Three in five Canadians think Western separatism is serious to one extent to another – Think this isn’t a time to talk about provinces separating from Canada (Globe and Mail/CTV News/Nanos)
Consumer confidence trending down – View that economy will get weaker hits high not seen since the s
Canadian consumer confidence continues to trend downwards in an environment of uncertainty spurred by US President Trump. Of note, pessimism on the future strength of the economy hit a high not seen since the summer of 2020. Those who report their job is absolutely secure hit a low also not seen since the summer of… Continue Reading Consumer confidence trending down – View that economy will get weaker hits high not seen since the summer of 2020 (Bloomberg/Nanos)
LPC 44.8, CPC 37.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.9, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 13, 2025)
Liberals lead by seven points coming out of the weekend tracking (LPC 45, CPC 38, NDP 9). The four point Liberal advantage from a week ago has marginally widened but is not as significant as the one time 11-point Liberal lead earlier in the election. When asked which leader Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister… Continue Reading LPC 44.8, CPC 37.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.9, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 13, 2025)
LPC 44.3, CPC 38.6, NDP 8.5, BQ 5.2, GP 2.0, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 12, 2025)
What is striking about this election is the consolidation of votes around the two front running parties. Together, as of last night 83 percent of Canadians are voting either Liberal (44%) or Conservative (39%). As context, in the last election about 67 percent of Canadians voted for the Conservatives or the Liberals. The frontrunners are… Continue Reading LPC 44.3, CPC 38.6, NDP 8.5, BQ 5.2, GP 2.0, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 12, 2025)
LPC 43.3, CPC 37.1, NDP 9.5, BQ 5.8, GP 2.8, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 11, 2025)
As we near the upcoming leadership debates the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives (LPC 43, CPC 37, NDP 10). Liberal support is strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies and British Columbia. Conservatives also do well among voters under 35 while the Liberals… Continue Reading LPC 43.3, CPC 37.1, NDP 9.5, BQ 5.8, GP 2.8, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 11, 2025)
Canadians more than two times as likely to favour the government financially supporting workers impa...
A majority of Canadians support or somewhat support the government financially supporting workers negatively impacted by new US tariffs even if it increased the deficit and the national debt. Of note, the intensity of support is highest among voters who are currently committed to the Liberals or the NDP. -Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist The… Continue Reading Canadians more than two times as likely to favour the government financially supporting workers impacted by new US tariffs than not. (The Globe and Mail/CTV News/Nanos)