The Liberals have a marginal five-point advantage over the Conservatives with a little over 10 days left in the campaign (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9). The first night of tracking which occurred concurrently with the French leaders debate shows the race in Quebec currently stable.  That said, debate impact…

Nanos conducted a survey on Canadians views of the federal government. One in three Canadians say optimism (32%) is the feeling that best describes their view of the federal government, representing an increase of 25 percentage points since the last wave in January 2025 and reaching a numerical high since…

Heading into the French language debate the Liberals are ahead by eight percentage points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8).  In battleground Quebec the Liberals have an advantage over their opponents (LPC 45, BQ 28, CPC 19, NDP 5).  The shape of the race in Quebec today is much different…

Conservative support hits a 14 year election day high – but it is not enough. The Liberal advantage continues at five percentage points (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9).   The interesting dynamic is that for the Conservatives, 39 percent is not enough to win the election.  One should not be…

A majority of Canadians (60%) believe the country is moving in the right direction on the response to the US tariffs. Of note, committed Conservatives are twice as likely to think we are moving in the wrong direction compared to the national average (50%  CPC wrong direction, 23% Canadians wrong…

About one in six Canadian say “Canada is broken” compared to the majority that think it is good but needs improvement (51%) or is a great country (33%).  Of note, Committed Conservatives are much less likely to say Canada is a great country (14% CPC, compared to 33% nationally) and…

A majority of Canadians across all regions and demographic groups believe Western separatism should be taken seriously/somewhat seriously. This intensity increases among committed Conservative and Bloc voters. Although a minority opinion, people living in the Prairies and British Columbia are comparatively more likely to think that this election is the…

Canadian consumer confidence continues to trend downwards in an environment of uncertainty spurred by US President Trump.  Of note, pessimism on the future strength of the economy hit a high not seen since the summer of 2020.  Those who report their job is absolutely secure hit a low also not…

Liberals lead by seven points coming out of the weekend tracking (LPC 45, CPC 38, NDP 9).  The four point Liberal advantage from a week ago has marginally widened but is not as significant as the one time 11-point Liberal lead earlier in the election. When asked which leader Canadians…

What is striking about this election is the consolidation of votes around the two front running parties.  Together, as of last night 83 percent of Canadians are voting either Liberal (44%) or Conservative (39%).  As context, in the last election about 67 percent of Canadians voted for the Conservatives or…

As we near the upcoming leadership debates the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives (LPC 43, CPC 37, NDP 10).  Liberal support is strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies and British Columbia. Conservatives also do well among voters…

A majority of Canadians support or somewhat support the government financially supporting workers negatively impacted by new US tariffs even if it increased the deficit and the national debt. Of note, the intensity of support is highest among voters who are currently committed to the Liberals or the NDP. -Nik…

A comfortable majority of Canadians favour an East-West pipeline for oil and liquified natural gas on with facilities on both coasts (58% support, 15% somewhat support). More than eight in ten people in the Prairies and individuals currently voting for the Conservative Party favour the project. -Nik Nanos, Chief Data…

While a majority of Canadians across all regions and age groups say Trump’s tariff actions against Canada will have a negative or somewhat negative impact on their personal finances, respondents aged 55 and over are most likely to say the tariffs will have an outright negative impact on their finances…

Canadians are more likely to not favour removing the carbon price on large industrial emitters (49% oppose/somewhat oppose, 39% support/somewhat support). Of note, there are striking partisan differences. Those favouring a removal of the carbon price on large industrial emitters increases from 39 percent to 63 percent among those currently…

It is an East versus West show down in popular support with the Liberals leading in Eastern Canada, the Conservatives leading in the Prairies and British Columbia being a toss-up. The Liberal advantage in national ballot support continues with the party six points ahead of their Conservative competitors (LPC 44,…

The close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives continues with only a five point difference between the two main parties (LPC 43, CPC 38, NDP 9).  On the leadership front, although Carney has a comfortable lead on who Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister (Carney 47, Poilievre 35), Poilievre…

More than three in five Canadians (62%) think Mark Carney would do the best job at negotiating with US President Donald Trump, while one in four believe Pierre Poilievre would do the best job (24%). Bernier, Blanchet and Singh each received one per cent, while fewer than one per cent…

We are in a world where 39 percent support for the Conservatives is not enough to win an election.  This is a result of the increasing polarization centred around the two front running parties.  Currently, the Liberal advantage has narrowed to four percentage points (Liberals 43, Conservatives 39, NDP 9). …

The narrowed five-point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives continues as voting day looms less than three weeks away. Compared to three days ago, the Liberals are down three points and the Conservatives up three in popular support. The Liberals have an advantage in four of five regions but…