Recent Reports
ELXN CALL > LPC 42.6, CPC 39.9, NDP 7.8, BQ 6.4, GP 1.9, PPC 1.1 (One day survey on April 27, 2025)
The final Globe and Mail/CTV News/Nanos tracking is complete. The interviews were completed today (Sunday April 27) and released the same day. 2025 was a seismic period in federal politics. The year opened with the Conservatives at 47 percent support followed by the Liberals at a lowly 20 percent on…
LPC 43.0, CPC 38.9, NDP 8.0, BQ 6.1, GP 2.8, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 26, 2025)
Less than a handful of percentage points separates the two front running parties on the tracking ending the Saturday before election day. Support for the Liberals stands at 43.0 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 38.9 percent and the New Democrats at 8.0 percent nationally. British Columbia is an absolute…
LPC 41.9, CPC 38.6, NDP 9.4, BQ 6.0, GP 2.9, PPC 1.3 (Tracking ending April 25, 2025)
The gap between the two front runners has narrowed to three percentage points as we enter the closing weekend of the campaign. Key movement over the last few days has been in battleground Ontario where the margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives is closing. The Liberal advantage stands at…
Weekly Issue – Tracking ending April 25th, 2025 – STAT SHEET
To access the weekly Issue – Tracking ending April 25th, 2025 – STAT SHEET, click here.
LPC 42.7, CPC 38.4, NDP 8.3, BQ 5.9, GP 3.2, PPC 1.4 (Tracking ending April 24, 2025)
In a nation divided between East and West, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario, the Conservatives in the Prairies with BC a toss up. National support for the parties stands at 42.7 percent for the Liberals, 38.4 percent for the Conservatives, 8.3% for the NDP, Bloc at…
Canadians are now four times more likely to think Canada should increase its current trade relationship with China compared to 2023 (CTV News/ Globe and Mail/Nanos)
About two in five Canadians think Canada should keep its trade relationship with China at the current level. However, the appetite to increase its current trade relationship with China has grown compared to 2023. Although similar proportions of both committed Conservative voters and committed Liberal voters prefer maintaining our current…
Leadership and platform drive the vote for both Conservatives and Liberals, but with different emphasis. (Globe and Mail/ CTV News/ Nanos)
Liberals are more likely to be driven by a federal party leader they trust (50%) and a platform or policy they like (17%), while Conservatives are more likely to be driven by a platform or policy they like (37%) and a federal party leader they trust (26%). Of note, the…
Second-generation and first-generation immigrants more likely to favour the Liberals than the Conservatives, dead heat among those with weak or no connection to immigration. (CTV News/ Globe and Mail/ Nanos)
The Liberals are more likely to be favoured than Conservatives by second-generation Canadian citizens (LPC 47.0%, CPC 37.1%, NDP 11.1%) and first-generation Canadian citizens (LPC 46.1%, CPC 35.8%, NDP 8.5%). There is a dead heat between Liberals (40.6%) and Conservatives (40.5%) among those with weak or no connection to immigration.…
Canadians are divided on financial commitments to foreign and humanitarian aid – Conservative voters most likely to want to see a decrease; Liberal voters more likely to favour status quo. (Globe and Mail/ CTV News/ Nanos)
Canadians are split in their views on Canada’s commitments to foreign and humanitarian aid. Forty-three percent would like aid to stay the same, 31 percent favour a decrease and 18 percent want to see an increase. There are significant differences by party affiliation, with Conservative voters being over six times…
Riding Snapshots – Perth-Wellington, Parry Sound-Muskoka & Simcoe North (OnePoint Association of Realtors/Nanos)
The research gauged the opinions among residents of the federal ridings of Perth-Wellington, Parry Sound-Muskoka and Simcoe North on the state of the riding including perceptions of real estate, core community issues and the housing market. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) random telephone survey of 900 residents…
LPC 42.9, CPC 39.3, NDP 7.2, BQ 6.0, GP 3.0, PPC 1.4 (Tracking ending April 23, 2025)
The gap is narrowing on both ballot preferences and who Canadians want as Prime Minister concurrent with the full release of the Conservative platform. Poilievre and the Conservatives are up over the past three days. As of last night, it is the tightest since the tracking began this election. Nationally…
LPC 44.1, CPC 38.5, NDP 7.7, BQ 5.4, GP 3.4, PPC 0.9 (Tracking ending April 22, 2025)
NDP support has slid after post debate bump. With less than a week to election day, the race between the Liberals and the Conservatives for ballot support continues to be close and stable (LPC 44.1, CPC 38.5, NDP 7.7). However, the NDP after an initial marginal lift coming out of…
LPC 42.6, CPC 37.1, NDP 10.4, BQ 5.9, GP 3.1, PPC 0.8 (Tracking ending April 21, 2025)
The gap is currently 5.5 percentage points between the Liberals and the Conservatives (LPC 42.6, CPC 37.1, NDP 10.5). There has been some movement numerically from the Liberals to the NDP while Conservative support remains steady. There are two key groups that are absolute toss-ups in the latest nightly tracking…
Consumer confidence continues to slide. Percentage who think economy will get weaker in next six months hits a five year high (Bloomberg/Nanos)
Consumer confidence continues to be on a negative trajectory. When asked if the economy will get stronger, weaker or have no change in the next six month, two of three asserted weaker. Numerically the weaker economy score has not been this high in almost five years. -Nik Nanos, Chief Data…
LPC 43.7, CPC 36.3, NDP 10.7, BQ 5.6, GP 2.9, PPC 0.8 (Tracking ending April 20, 2025)
The Liberals close out the weekend following the French and English debates with a seven point lead over the Conservatives (LCP 43.7, CPC 36.3, NDP 10.7). In addition to their lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario, the Liberals are currently ahead in battleground British Columbia. The Conservatives only lead…
LPC 43.2, CPC 37.0, NDP 10.5, BQ 5.8, GP 2.7, PPC 0.8 (Tracking ending April 19, 2025)
The impact of the two leadership debates is starting to play itself out with polling completed on Saturday. Readers should note that no fieldwork was done on the Friday statutory holiday so the three day sample is based on April 16, 17 and 19. The Liberals have a six point…
LPC 45.4, CPC 37.1, NDP 8.3, BQ 5.6, GP 2.9, PPC 0.7 (Tracking ending April 17, 2025)
The latest CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos tracking has the Liberals ahead by eight points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8) as the campaign enters the holiday weekend. The Liberals lead in four of five regions while Conservatives continue to enjoy a comfortable advantage in their Prairie heartland. In the tracking…
Carney, Poilievre a toss up as to who people trust to help young Canadians. Cost of living top issue for young voters, US trade war top issue for older Canadians (CTV News/ Globe and Mail/ Nanos)
Around one in three Canadians say they trust Mark Carney and the Liberals most to help young Canadians (34%) closely followed by those say Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives (31%). Young people more likely to trust Poilievre over Carney. Young Canadians also more likely to focus on cost of living…
Although Canadians are more likely to say they feel as safe compared to 10 years ago, Conservative voters are the most likely to say they feel less safe. Trust in court system to punish convicted violent criminals a mixed bag – Liberals more likely to trust, Conservatives less likely to trust the courts. (Globe and Mail/CTV News/Nanos)
In addition to noteworthy differences by party affiliation, respondents in the Prairies, Ontario and BC are more likely than respondents in Quebec to say they feel somewhat less safe or less safe than they did ten years ago (45% in the Prairies; 43% in Ontario; 41% in BC; 24% in…
LPC 43.5, CPC 38.8, NDP 8.7, BQ 5.6, GP 2.3, PPC 0.9 (Tracking ending April 16, 2025)
The Liberals have a marginal five-point advantage over the Conservatives with a little over 10 days left in the campaign (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9). The first night of tracking which occurred concurrently with the French leaders debate shows the race in Quebec currently stable. That said, debate impact…