The Liberals are more likely to be favoured than Conservatives by second-generation Canadian citizens (LPC 47.0%, CPC 37.1%, NDP 11.1%) and first-generation Canadian citizens (LPC 46.1%, CPC 35.8%, NDP 8.5%). There is a dead heat between Liberals (40.6%) and Conservatives (40.5%) among those with weak or no connection to immigration. Carney leads as the preferred PM among all groups, but holds a stronger lead with those more closely connected to immigration. Of note, the Bloc Québécois has less support among immigrants, first-generation and second-generation Canadians in Québec.
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV News-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 23, 2025.
A random survey of 1,307 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
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