The Ford PCs lead by 14 points going into the close of the campaign. Of note, Liberal support is moving up while NDP support is moving down in the latest polling. PCs lead in four of five regions with Toronto as a toss-up in the tracking. (Tracking ending Feb 25)
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV News/Nanos nightly provincial election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 900 Ontarians aged 18 years and over three days (300 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. One half of the sample is administered the questionnaire by telephone and one half are administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 900 interviews, with the oldest group of 300 interviews being replaced by a new group of 300 each evening. Note: On February 25th 600 interviews were conducted, bringing the three-day total to 1,200 interviews. The current data covers the three-night period ending February 25th, 2025.
A random survey of 1,230 Ontarians is accurate 2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To read the full report click here.