Both the Ford-led PC and the Crombie-led Liberal parties continue to cruise at support levels higher than the last provincial election in 2022. The Stiles New Democrats register ballot numbers lower than those in 2022. The massive 26-point advantage for the PCs among males is a crucial driver of the Ford advantage. (Tracking ending Feb 14)
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV News/Nanos nightly provincial election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 900 Ontarians aged 18 years and over three days (300 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. One half of the sample is administered the questionnaire by telephone and one half are administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 900 interviews, with the oldest group of 300 interviews being replaced by a new group of 300 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending February 14th, 2025.
A random survey of 925 Ontarians is accurate 3.2 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To read the full report click here.