What is striking about this election is the consolidation of votes around the two front running parties.  Together, as of last night 83 percent of Canadians are voting either Liberal (44%) or Conservative (39%).  As context, in the last election about 67 percent of Canadians voted for the Conservatives or the Liberals.  The frontrunners are crushing the rest of the parties.  Three of four of the other parties are down compared to the last election (NDP 16% in the 2021 election currently 9%, BQ 8% now 5%, Greens 2% in 2021 about the same now, PPC 5% now 1% nationally).

This particular election has a heightened focus on the two main choices to the detriment of all the other parties. 

Also of note, based on past experience, the proportion of undecided is uncharacteristically low (currently 7%). It is usually higher at this point in the campaign and usually tracks to this level near the end. Key takeaway – it looks like everyone has an opinion on the two frontrunning parties and there are fewer truly persuadable than in past elections. (Three day tracking ending April 12, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 12, 2025.

A random survey of 1,300 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.