The Liberals have a marginal five-point advantage over the Conservatives with a little over 10 days left in the campaign (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9). The first night of tracking which occurred concurrently with the French leaders debate shows the race in Quebec currently stable.  That said, debate impact many times has two phases.  First on those that watched the debate and the second on those that read, watch or listen to the post debate news and analysis.  It will take another day or two to fully gauge the fallout of the French debate. 

Of note, a battle for the middle aged is brewing.  Throughout the campaign the Liberals have led among voters over 55 years of age and the Conservatives among voters under 35. The battle for middle aged voters is an absolute dead heat (CPC 42, LPC 42, NDP 7).  They represent a key demographic with a strong likelihood to vote. (Three day tracking ending April 16, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 16, 2025.

A random survey of 1,351 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.