Less than a handful of percentage points separates the two front running parties on the tracking ending the Saturday before election day.  Support for the Liberals stands at 43.0 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 38.9 percent and the New Democrats at 8.0 percent nationally.  British Columbia is an absolute toss up between the Conservatives and the Liberals.  The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic and Quebec and there is only a six point difference in Ontario between the Liberals (47.6%) and the Conservatives (41.8%).  The Prairie provinces remain rock solid for the Conservatives.

Asked who Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister, Carney comes in at 48.5 percent followed by Poilievre at 35.2 percent.

Readers should note that a double daily sample was conducted on Saturday so 50 percent of the three day rolling average is comprised of interviews conducted on Saturday. (Tracking ending April 26). The last day of CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos tracking will be today (April 27) with the final election call survey released the same day (April 27).

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. Note: On April 26th 800 interviews were conducted, bringing the three-day total to 1,600 interviews. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 26, 2025.

A random survey of 1,699 Canadians is accurate ±2.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.