The Poilievre Conservatives are losing ground to the Carney Liberals, according to the latest CTV/Globe and Mail/Nanos tracking poll. With the Liberals leading 44% to the Conservatives’ 36%, a significant shift has emerged in Ontario—a critical battleground for federal elections. Once a stronghold that bolstered Conservative hopes of victory, Ontario now sees the Liberals ahead by a commanding 12 percentage points.

This dramatic reversal in Ontario could reshape the next federal government. The Conservatives’ earlier momentum relied on robust support in both the Prairies and Ontario. However, the unraveling of their Ontario base has left the Liberals in a stronger position.

On the preferred Prime Minister front, Carney holds a clear edge over Poilievre. The dynamic mirrors Ontario’s recent provincial election, where Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford leveraged Donald Trump as a foil to dominate headlines. Carney appears to benefit from a similar “two-for-one” media advantage—garnering coverage both as a party leader and as a counterpoint to Trump. This dual spotlight could prove pivotal as the race unfolds. (Three-day sample ending March 30, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending March 30, 2025.

A random survey of 1,264 Ontarians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.