The final Globe and Mail/CTV News/Nanos tracking is complete. The interviews were completed today (Sunday April 27) and released the same day.

2025 was a seismic period in federal politics. The year opened with the Conservatives at 47 percent support followed by the Liberals at a lowly 20 percent on the eve of Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Fast forward and with the Trudeau resignation, Trump tariff attacks and the Liberals electing Carney as party leader, what looked like a Liberal Party on its deathbed is a party that has led in ballot support for the whole election.

That said, ballot support does not usually convert into seats. If the past helps inform the future the Conservatives, who won the popular support in the last two elections, were not able to efficiently convert that support into the greatest number of seats. All this boils down to an election where Liberal votes were driven by the Carney personal brand and worry about managing US President Trump while the Conservative votes were driven by a strong appetite for change and a Conservative agenda.

As of Sunday night, the one day election call by Nanos has the Liberals at 42.6 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 39.9 percent and the NDP at 7.8 percent. Asked who Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister, Carney comes in at 51.9 percent followed by Poilievre at 32.1 percent in the one day election call data for Sunday only.

Readers should note that a double daily sample was conducted on Saturday and Sunday and that the election call is based on a one day sample on Sunday only. (Tracking ending April 27).

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening bringing the three-day total to 1,600 interviews. Note: On April 26th and 27th 800 interviews were conducted. The current data covers the two-night period ending April 27, 2025.

A random survey of 1,707 Canadians is accurate ±2.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.