Category: Political tracking

Now it’s a five-point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The one thing we do know is that US President Trump has not been looming large in the Canadian mindset for the last number of days – especially compared to the period leading up to his “Liberation Day”.  There have been no knock-out punches… Continue Reading LPC 42.8, CPC 37.7, NDP 7.9, BQ 6.7, GP 2.8, PPC 1.6 (Tracking ending April 6, 2025)

In the post Trump “Liberation Day” period the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed with the Liberals at 43 percent and the Conservatives at 37 percent nationally. The New Democrats stand at eight percent support (eight percent represents a new numeric low for the NDP).  Conservative gains have been in seat rich… Continue Reading LPC 43.4, CPC 37.0, NDP 8.2, BQ 6.0, GP 3.3, PPC 1.9 (Tracking ending April 5, 2025)

Carney boosts Liberal fortunes. What is clear from the data is the Liberal advantage is clearly being driven by their new leader.  A look at the nightly ballot tracking has the Liberals with a 10 point lead over the Conservatives (LPC 46, CPC 36) with the New Democrats a distant third at nine percentage points. … Continue Reading LPC 45.5, CPC 35.9, NDP 9.4, BQ 5.2, GP 2.2, PPC 1.4 (Tracking ending April 3, 2025)

The latest national tracking survey shows a lift in support for the Liberal Party, now leading with 46% of voter backing. The Conservatives follow at 37%, while the New Democrats trail at a tracking low of 9%, dipping from 11% in earlier tracking. Over the initial five days of data collection, the Liberals have experienced… Continue Reading Federal Nightly Tracking: LPC 45.8, CPC 36.7, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.7, PPC 1.1 (CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos)

 It’s a two-party consolidation compared to past elections.  The Carney Liberals continue to have an eight-point advantage over the Poilievre Conservatives.  Compared to past elections a two-party consolidation is redefining the election landscape. A key signature of this election is the consolidation of support among the two front running parties.  Over eight in ten voters… Continue Reading Federal Nightly Tracking: LPC 45.1, CPC 37.2, NDP 9.2, BQ 5.3, GP 1.6, PPC 1.1 (CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos)

 As the campaign unfolds the Carney Liberals have opened up an eight-point advantage over the Poilievre Conservatives while the NDP continues to distantly trail.  The Liberals lead in every region except the Prairie provinces where the Conservatives continue to do very well. Women are more likely to vote Liberal while men are more likely to… Continue Reading Federal Nightly Tracking: LPC 44.7, CPC 36.6, NDP 10.1, BQ 5.6, GP 1.6, PPC 1.3 (CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos)

 The Poilievre Conservatives are losing ground to the Carney Liberals, according to the latest CTV/Globe and Mail/Nanos tracking poll. With the Liberals leading 44% to the Conservatives’ 36%, a significant shift has emerged in Ontario—a critical battleground for federal elections. Once a stronghold that bolstered Conservative hopes of victory, Ontario now sees the Liberals ahead… Continue Reading Federal Nightly Tracking: LPC 43.6, CPC 36.1, NDP 10.5, BQ 5.3, GP 2.4, PPC 1.9 (CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos)

As the first three-day sample of the campaign concludes, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, are emerging as the frontrunners in a tightly contested race. Support for the party has surged, drawing voters away from the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Greens. Meanwhile, the Conservatives maintain a steady base, setting the stage for a two-horse race.… Continue Reading Federal Nightly Tracking: LPC 41.9, CPC 37.0, NDP 10.6, BQ 5.3, GP 2.6, PPC 1.9 (CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos)