The latest CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos tracking has the Liberals ahead by eight points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8) as the campaign enters the holiday weekend. The Liberals lead in four of five regions while Conservatives continue to enjoy a comfortable advantage in their Prairie heartland. In the tracking following the French debate the… Continue Reading LPC 45.4, CPC 37.1, NDP 8.3, BQ 5.6, GP 2.9, PPC 0.7 (Tracking ending April 17, 2025)
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Category: Political tracking
LPC 43.5, CPC 38.8, NDP 8.7, BQ 5.6, GP 2.3, PPC 0.9 (Tracking ending April 16, 2025)
The Liberals have a marginal five-point advantage over the Conservatives with a little over 10 days left in the campaign (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9). The first night of tracking which occurred concurrently with the French leaders debate shows the race in Quebec currently stable. That said, debate impact many times has two phases. … Continue Reading LPC 43.5, CPC 38.8, NDP 8.7, BQ 5.6, GP 2.3, PPC 0.9 (Tracking ending April 16, 2025)
LPC 44.7, CPC 37.3, NDP 8.3, BQ 6.2, GP 2.2, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 15, 2025)
Heading into the French language debate the Liberals are ahead by eight percentage points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8). In battleground Quebec the Liberals have an advantage over their opponents (LPC 45, BQ 28, CPC 19, NDP 5). The shape of the race in Quebec today is much different compared to the last federal… Continue Reading LPC 44.7, CPC 37.3, NDP 8.3, BQ 6.2, GP 2.2, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 15, 2025)
LPC 44.1, CPC 38.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.3, PPC 1.5 (Tracking ending April 14, 2025)
Conservative support hits a 14 year election day high – but it is not enough. The Liberal advantage continues at five percentage points (LPC 44, CPC 39, NDP 9). The interesting dynamic is that for the Conservatives, 39 percent is not enough to win the election. One should not be surprised that the Conservatives feel… Continue Reading LPC 44.1, CPC 38.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.3, PPC 1.5 (Tracking ending April 14, 2025)
LPC 44.8, CPC 37.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.9, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 13, 2025)
Liberals lead by seven points coming out of the weekend tracking (LPC 45, CPC 38, NDP 9). The four point Liberal advantage from a week ago has marginally widened but is not as significant as the one time 11-point Liberal lead earlier in the election. When asked which leader Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister… Continue Reading LPC 44.8, CPC 37.8, NDP 8.8, BQ 5.5, GP 1.9, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 13, 2025)
LPC 44.3, CPC 38.6, NDP 8.5, BQ 5.2, GP 2.0, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 12, 2025)
What is striking about this election is the consolidation of votes around the two front running parties. Together, as of last night 83 percent of Canadians are voting either Liberal (44%) or Conservative (39%). As context, in the last election about 67 percent of Canadians voted for the Conservatives or the Liberals. The frontrunners are… Continue Reading LPC 44.3, CPC 38.6, NDP 8.5, BQ 5.2, GP 2.0, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 12, 2025)
LPC 43.3, CPC 37.1, NDP 9.5, BQ 5.8, GP 2.8, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 11, 2025)
As we near the upcoming leadership debates the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives (LPC 43, CPC 37, NDP 10). Liberal support is strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies and British Columbia. Conservatives also do well among voters under 35 while the Liberals… Continue Reading LPC 43.3, CPC 37.1, NDP 9.5, BQ 5.8, GP 2.8, PPC 1.1 (Tracking ending April 11, 2025)
LPC 43.6, CPC 37.8, NDP 8.7, BQ 5.6, GP 2.4, PPC 1.7 (Tracking ending April 10, 2025)
It is an East versus West show down in popular support with the Liberals leading in Eastern Canada, the Conservatives leading in the Prairies and British Columbia being a toss-up. The Liberal advantage in national ballot support continues with the party six points ahead of their Conservative competitors (LPC 44, CPC 38, NDP 9). The… Continue Reading LPC 43.6, CPC 37.8, NDP 8.7, BQ 5.6, GP 2.4, PPC 1.7 (Tracking ending April 10, 2025)
LPC 43.0, CPC 38.1, NDP 8.9, BQ 5.7, GP 2.6, PPC 1.5 (Tracking ending April 9, 2025)
The close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives continues with only a five point difference between the two main parties (LPC 43, CPC 38, NDP 9). On the leadership front, although Carney has a comfortable lead on who Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister (Carney 47, Poilievre 35), Poilievre has been incrementally closing the… Continue Reading LPC 43.0, CPC 38.1, NDP 8.9, BQ 5.7, GP 2.6, PPC 1.5 (Tracking ending April 9, 2025)
LPC 42.8, CPC 38.6, NDP 8.5, BQ 6.2, GP 2.3, PPC 1.3 (Tracking ending April 8, 2025)
We are in a world where 39 percent support for the Conservatives is not enough to win an election. This is a result of the increasing polarization centred around the two front running parties. Currently, the Liberal advantage has narrowed to four percentage points (Liberals 43, Conservatives 39, NDP 9). Also of note, Carney retains… Continue Reading LPC 42.8, CPC 38.6, NDP 8.5, BQ 6.2, GP 2.3, PPC 1.3 (Tracking ending April 8, 2025)