Doug Ford’s initial 16-point lead in the CTV News/Nanos tracking poll has narrowed to a 12-point advantage. Support for both the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) and the Liberals tends to increase with age, while backing for the New Democrats declines among older demographics. Greens similar across generations. The PCs currently lead in four out of five regions across the province. (Tracking ending Feb 10)
The CTV News/Nanos nightly provincial election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 900 Ontarians aged 18 years and over three days (300 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. One half of the sample is administered the questionnaire by telephone and one half are administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 900 interviews, with the oldest group of 300 interviews being replaced by a new group of 300 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending February 10th, 2025.
A random survey of 920 Ontarians is accurate 3.2 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
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