The ballot advantage for the Liberals has increased from five to 11 percentage points since the beginning of the nightly tracking. (LPC 46, CPC 35, NDP 9). The Conservatives and Liberals are within the margin of error of each other among male voters for the first time in the Nanos tracking since June 2022. Liberals have a comfortable 23 point lead over the Conservatives among women voters.
Also of note, people are asked who they would prefer as prime minister, the advantage of Liberal leader Mark Carney over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has opened up from 16 to 22 points. (Three-day sample ending April 4, 2025)
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 4, 2025.
A random survey of 1,248 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To read the full report click here.