Carney boosts Liberal fortunes. What is clear from the data is the Liberal advantage is clearly being driven by their new leader.  A look at the nightly ballot tracking has the Liberals with a 10 point lead over the Conservatives (LPC 46, CPC 36) with the New Democrats a distant third at nine percentage points.  The Liberal advantage on the first tracking report was five percentage points and it is now 10 percentage points.  This is in the wake of Liberal leader Mark Carney responding to the Trump “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.

The political multiplier between Liberal ballot support and preference for the Liberal leader as prime minister continues.  Currently for every one-point advantage the Liberals have in the ballot box over the Conservatives, Carney has a two-point advantage over Poilievre on the preferred prime minister tracking

As a comparison, when asked who people would prefer as PM the 10-point, Liberal ballot box advantage increases to 20 points on the preferred PM measure (Carney preferred as PM 51, Poilievre preferred as PM  31).  As context the last politician to hit preferred PM numbers at these levels was Trudeau.  At the beginning of this first mandate, during the political honeymoon, the proportion of Canadians who preferred him as prime minister was at or near 50 percent. (Three-day sample ending April 3, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 3, 2025.

A random survey of 1,241 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.