In the post Trump “Liberation Day” period the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed with the Liberals at 43 percent and the Conservatives at 37 percent nationally. The New Democrats stand at eight percent support (eight percent represents a new numeric low for the NDP).  Conservative gains have been in seat rich Ontario (now LPC 48, CPC 41).  On the preferred Prime Minister tracking Carney remains head of Poilievre significantly (Carney 50, Poilievre 31).

Of note, since the election tracking began, Liberal fortunes improved with a focus on Trump.  In the post Liberation Day period, the trajectory is remaking itself.  This speaks to an environment where the Trump role, or lack of a role, may be a determining factor in the fortunes of the front runners.

Similar to the shift in support back in January away from the Conservatives (who had reached a high of 47 percent in national support) toward the Liberals, swings between the two front runners materially influence the complexion of the race. (Three-day sample ending April 5, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 5, 2025.

A random survey of 1,270 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.