The gap is narrowing on both ballot preferences and who Canadians want as Prime Minister concurrent with the full release of the Conservative platform. Poilievre and the Conservatives are up over the past three days. As of last night, it is the tightest since the tracking began this election. Nationally the Liberals stand at 42.9 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 39.3 and the NDP at 7.2. The NDP is also at their lowest level thus far in the campaign.
Although Carney leads on the preferred PM tracking, Poilievre has been trending up over the last three days (Preferred PM Carney 46.3, Preferred PM Poilievre 36.9) with the narrowest gap in the campaign to date. (Tracking ending April 23, 2025)
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 23, 2025.
A random survey of 1,307 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To read the full report click here.