We are in a world where 39 percent support for the Conservatives is not enough to win an election.  This is a result of the increasing polarization centred around the two front running parties.  Currently, the Liberal advantage has narrowed to four percentage points (Liberals 43, Conservatives 39, NDP 9).  Also of note, Carney retains a comfortable lead on the preferred PM tracking, but it is also diminishing.

A look at the regional ballot breakdowns suggests the Liberal support is likely better distributed for converting into seats.  The Conservatives enjoy about a 20 point lead in the Prairies, while the Liberals lead in the other regions ranges from five to 16 points.  Demographically the race is tightening between the front runners among those voters under 55 years of age while the Liberals retain their lead among voters over 55. (Three day tracking ending April 8, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 8, 2025.

A random survey of 1,239 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.