Now it’s a five-point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The one thing we do know is that US President Trump has not been looming large in the Canadian mindset for the last number of days – especially compared to the period leading up to his “Liberation Day”.  There have been no knock-out punches between the federal leaders, no major changes in strategy – just a regular campaign if there ever is such a thing. We do know that research completed for The Globe and Mail/CTV News last week shows that Canadians believe the Carney Liberals have the advantage when tension between Canada and the US is high.  Reduce that focus and more of a horse race emerges.

The latest tracking has the gap now narrowing to five percentage points with the Liberals at 43, the Conservatives at 38 and the New Democrats at eight percentage points nationally. Setting aside the Trump sensitivity in the numbers, we could be entering a period where a focus on other issues like, jobs, the cost of living, housing, taxes and such will be more on the minds of voters.  In that respect, without a major Trump threat we are likely entering a more ‘normal’ period with a focus on a diversity of issues. (Three day tracking ending April 6, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 6, 2025.

A random survey of 1,264 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.