The latest national tracking survey shows a lift in support for the Liberal Party, now leading with 46% of voter backing. The Conservatives follow at 37%, while the New Democrats trail at a tracking low of 9%, dipping from 11% in earlier tracking.

Over the initial five days of data collection, the Liberals have experienced a notable rise, climbing from 42% to 46%. Meanwhile, the NDP’s descent into single digits marks a significant setback for a party that has previously served as Canada’s Official Opposition.

Interestingly, Liberal leader Mark Carney’s ballot box advantage (nine points) nearly doubles—spiking to 17 points—when respondents are asked who they would prefer as prime minister. We are in an environment with parallels to the recent Ontario election, where Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford capitalized on being seen as a counterpoint to Donald Trump. Carney appears to be benefiting from a similar dynamic, currently securing an electoral boost. (Three-day sample ending April 2, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 2, 2025.

A random survey of 1,248 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.