It’s a two-party consolidation compared to past elections. The Carney Liberals continue to have an eight-point advantage over the Poilievre Conservatives. Compared to past elections a two-party consolidation is redefining the election landscape. A key signature of this election is the consolidation of support among the two front running parties. Over eight in ten voters today are voting Liberal or Conservative. This compared to about two in three in 2021 election. This puts a spotlight on how non-governing parties are being squeezed by the focus on the front runners, who will deal with the US administration and guide the Canadian economy through uncertain times. (Three-day sample ending April 1, 2025)
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 1, 2025.
A random survey of 1,256 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To read the full report click here.