As the first three-day sample of the campaign concludes, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, are emerging as the frontrunners in a tightly contested race. Support for the party has surged, drawing voters away from the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Greens. Meanwhile, the Conservatives maintain a steady base, setting the stage for a two-horse race. Strategic voting appears to be the driving force behind the Liberals’ five-point advantage, as voters rally to counterbalance the Conservative challenge. This dynamic is reshaping the political terrain, squeezing smaller parties out of the spotlight.

 In a world disrupted by Trump-era politics, Canadians are laser-focused on who will steer the nation through these turbulent times. The stakes are high, and the campaign is just beginning to unfold. (Tracking Survey ending March 29, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending March 29, 2025.

A random survey of 1,285 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.