As we near the upcoming leadership debates the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives (LPC 43, CPC 37, NDP 10).  Liberal support is strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies and British Columbia. Conservatives also do well among voters under 35 while the Liberals do well among older voters.

The big question will be how the debates influence the trend lines.  The Liberal advantage is largely driven by its leader Mark Carney, while the Conservative support is more driven by meat and potato issues and the mood for change.  My sense is that the Liberal trendline will be quite sensitive to the debate performance of Carney.  On the preferred PM tracking Carney currently has a comfortable advantage over Poilievre (Carney 48, Poilievre 34).  (Three day tracking ending April 11, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 11, 2025.

A random survey of 1,250 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.