The gap is currently 5.5 percentage points between the Liberals and the Conservatives (LPC 42.6, CPC 37.1, NDP 10.5).  There has been some movement numerically from the Liberals to the NDP while Conservative support remains steady. There are two key groups that are absolute toss-ups in the latest nightly tracking – middle aged voters and voters in British Columbia. Among voters aged 35 to 54 the Conservatives are at 40 percent support followed by the Liberals at 39 percent.  In battleground British Columbia, the Liberals and the Conservatives each have 40 percent support followed  by the New Democrats at 19 percent.  The current Liberal advantage is being driven by voters in Eastern Canada and those over 55 years of age.  (Tracking ending April 21, 2025)

-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents.  Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 21, 2025.

A random survey of 1,308 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

To read the full report click here.