The latest CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos tracking has the Liberals ahead by eight points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8) as the campaign enters the holiday weekend. The Liberals lead in four of five regions while Conservatives continue to enjoy a comfortable advantage in their Prairie heartland. In the tracking following the French debate the Liberals have maintained their over 20 point lead in Quebec (Quebec LPC 48, BQ 25, CPC 19). It remains too early to tell what the impact might be of the English debate.
On the preferred Prime Minister tracking, Carney is the choice of 48 percent of Canadians, followed by Poilievre at 34 percent and Singh a distant third at five percent. (Tracking survey three days ending April 17, 2025)
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 17, 2025.
A random survey of 1,316 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To view the full report click here.