Heading into the French language debate the Liberals are ahead by eight percentage points (LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 8). In battleground Quebec the Liberals have an advantage over their opponents (LPC 45, BQ 28, CPC 19, NDP 5). The shape of the race in Quebec today is much different compared to the last federal election results in Quebec with the Liberals up at the expense of both the NDP and the BQ (2021 Federal ELXN QC only – LPC 34, BQ 32, CPC 19, NDP 10). (Three day tracking ending April 15, 2025)
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 15, 2025.
A random survey of 1,359 Canadians is accurate ±2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To read the full report click here.