Regardless of the current political environment, the election is clearly still up for grabs. Although 55 percent of Canadians report having made a final vote decision, a significant one in five say they will make their final decision in the last 72 hours (10% will make their final decision on election day and another 10% on the final weekend of the campaign). Of note, currently committed Liberal and Conservative voters report they are more likely to have made their final vote decision (LPC 66%, CPC 62%) while committed New Democrat and Bloc voters are comparatively less likely to say they have made their final decision (NDP 41%, BQ 44%). (Field ending April 3, 2025).
-Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist
The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over three days (400 interviews each day). Respondents are all randomly recruited through a dual-frame (cell- and land-line) RDD sample using live agents. Three quarters of the sample are administered the questionnaire by telephone and one quarter is administered the same questionnaire online. The random sample may be weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census data. Throughout the election, the interviews are compiled into a three-night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, with the oldest group of 400 interviews being replaced by a new group of 400 each evening. The current data covers the three-night period ending April 3, 2025.
A random survey of 1,239 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
The full methodology is detailed in the technical note in this report. This research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.
Full data tables with weighted and unweighted number of interviews is here.
Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
To read the full report, click here.